Canucks: Sebastian Aho's extension one other bullet in chamber for Elias Pettersson

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That is how Don Waddell justified an eight-year, $78-million US contract extension Wednesday for star ahead Sebastian Aho.

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“Sebastian has developed into probably the greatest two-way centres in hockey,” the Carolina Hurricanes basic supervisor stated in a launch. “He’s an incredible chief on and off the ice who units an excellent instance for our youthful gamers. We’re grateful that he’s determined to remain in Carolina for the foreseeable future.”

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Substitute Elias Pettersson for Aho in that summation and also you get the Vancouver Canucks’ appreciation of their electrical and evolving centre. He’s coming off a profession 102-point season (39-63) and completed tenth in NHL scoring. The face of the franchise is worthy of a substantial dedication in an extension that has one other comparability level with Aho.

And that’s the place it will get fascinating.

Matthew Tkachuk and David Pastrnak offered one of the best vary to foretell the place Pettersson matches in an extension. Tkachuk’s annual cap hit of $9.5 million and Pastrnak’s large $11.25-million dedication doubtless place Pettersson someplace within the center, primarily based on manufacturing and future potential.

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“It’s in all probability going someplace between $9.5 million and $10.25 million, and $10 million is just not unreasonable,” former Canucks assistant basic supervisor Chris Gear informed Postmedia final week.

Nevertheless, now comes Aho and his $9.75-million cap quantity, which is one other bullet within the negotiation chamber. Is that thought of the ground, within the ballpark, or one thing else? It’s not a stretch to counsel that Pettersson’s camp might push towards $11 million.

The Swedish sensation has a yr remaining on his contract at a $7.35-million cap hit.

In case you take a look at the platform season — the one upfront of a participant signing an extension — then Pettersson outpaced Aho, who had 67 factors (36-31) in 2022-23. And people who negotiate contracts imagine that yr is the higher indicator of long-term potential.

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Mikko Rantanen of the Colorado Avalanche put up 87 factors (31-56) after which 14 playoff factors (6-8) in 12 video games throughout his 2018-19 platform season. It resulted in a six-year, $55-million extension that carries a $9.25-million cap hit, and the dedication confirmed in Rantanen piling up a profession 105 factors (55-50) this previous season.

It was the identical story for Matt Barzal.

In his platform season of 2021-22, the Coquitlam native and Calder Trophy winner in 2018 had 59 factors (15-44) in 73 video games for the New York Islanders. Final season, he had simply 51 factors (14-37) in 58 video games whereas battling accidents. Over the course of a full season, he would have been on tempo for 72 factors.

Barzal signed an eight-year, $72.5-million extension in October of 2022 that was a superb Pettersson comparable, with a $9.15-million cap hit. Now, it’s not even thought of the ground.

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The Pettersson camp can level to what Aho, 26, has achieved in seven seasons with 408 factors (218-250), in comparison with Pettersson’s 323 factors (136-107) in 5 campaigns. The typical manufacturing is 65.4 factors for Aho and 64.6 for Pettersson, who can also be two years youthful.

Pettersson additionally operated at a 1.28 points-per-game clip final season to rank eighth — Aho was 74th at 0.89, and his league-high 5 shorthanded targets converse to general worth as a future Selke Trophy candidate.

“Tkachuk’s (cap) quantity is achievable as a result of numbers in his platform yr had been fairly near what Petey is coming in with,” added Gear. “You might argue Tkachuk is a extra full participant, however he took much less and he’s enjoying in a no-tax jurisdiction (Florida). That quantity is like $11 million of actual cash.

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“Targets are nonetheless probably the most dominant issue. That’s just like the Pastrnak scenario with the (61) targets. If I’m the Canucks, it’s an outlier and value $1 million extra. However in case you’re the agent, you’ll be able to say the upside for Petey could also be increased, and he can get to that degree in targets, whereas nonetheless bringing the opposite stuff.”

Tkachuk, 25, had 109 factors (40-69) this season to complete seventh in scoring. The ability ahead dominated within the post-season with 24 factors (11-13) — together with 4 game-winners and three extra time targets — and was third in scoring earlier than being injured. It made his eight-year, $76-million extension signed with Calgary a yr in the past appear to be a efficiency discount.

Pastrnak, 27, rewarded Boston’s religion of $90 million over eight years final March appear sensible, even with the huge cap hit. He responded with 61 targets and 113 factors this season to complete fourth in scoring. He additionally had a league-high 13 game-winning targets, and 18 on the ability play to position seventh.

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The Canucks can counter in Pettersson negotiations by asserting that Aho has not solely surpassed the 30-goal plateau on 4 events, his 58 factors (23-35) in 63 playoff video games speaks to excelling when it issues. Nevertheless, Pettersson did have 18 factors (7-11) in 17 video games through the 2022 playoff bubble run in Edmonton.

The Canucks might additionally group productive gamers within the $7-million to $9-million cap hit — Alex DeBrincat of Detroit ($7.87 million, 41 targets in 2021-22) and Timo Meier of New Jersey ($8.8 million, 40 targets in 2022-23) — to drive down the extension quantity.

“What’s the chance of Petey to progress to turn out to be a kind of uncommon gamers, or does he settle in as a prime 10 or 15 man — however not in that higher echelon?” requested Gear. “It’s a tough argument to make primarily based on his development.”

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